Argument: massively open online courses - MOOCs - will transform the nature of tertiary education. Soon.
An argument can be made that we are seeing immense pressures on tertiary education globally. In Europe and North America there is dissatisfaction with outcomes: Students graduate with debts, yet without reasonable prospects for employment, while governments and taxpayers seek to reduce costs. Countering this is the view that those students are learning within a privileged system with privileged expectations, yet are graduating into a globally competitive world. MOOCs bring knowledge to the under-privileged of the world, who can and are using that knowledge to compete with us.
There has been much publicity of late, both good and bad, regarding MOOCs. While there have been online courses since the late 20th, massively open online courses began September 2011 - only 18 months ago. Coursera alone currently offers over 250 courses from 62 universities around the world, with about 2.5M students enrolled from over 180 countries. That is incredible growth from zero 18 months ago. In recent months, some MOOCs are now being recognized for course credits by some universities, a trend likely to continue.
MOOCs are now working their way through the traditional technology Gartner Hype Cycle of uninformed publicity, enthusiasm and premature peak of inflated expectations, to be followed soon by the trough of disillusionment, then will begin the deeper understanding and market penetration which transforms markets and destroys old business models. The pedagogy will have to change, as will the tertiary education business model.
MOOCs are not a silver-bullet which will replace universities and colleges: Devlin "A country which de-funds universities in favour of MOOCs is one generation away from 3rd world status". What is the path to successfully incorporate MOOCs into our education?
I believe we are now in year 2 of a 5 to 7 year cycle before the real impact is felt. That's not much time. Can tertiary education institutions and the government agencies which support them respond adequately to these changes in these few years?
How will small regional institutions compete against courses taught by professors of the first rank? What will have to change so they can add value beyond the free online version of the course? Large institutions also face challenges - how can they pretend that they're adding value with class sizes of 200+ versus a more effective free online course? Of course there will always be courses which require hands-on lab work or practice such as engineering and music. In many ways those are 'subsidized' by the bulk classes. How will they be funded when there' little or no interest in the bulk classes? Which institutions will seize the day and which will be mortally wounded? What opportunities will be closed off to students and where will new opportunities lie?
To conclude, it appears we will see profound changes in tertiary education, a realm renown for its inertia and ivory-tower isolation from markets. I fear this will not end well for many institutions, the people they employ, and the students they seek to teach.
Further reading:
An insightful and witty blog exploring the nature of MOOCs, the challenges and opportunities, is at mooctalk.org with Keith Devlin (Stanford) as he discusses his efforts to design, create, teach, and moderate his first iteration of Introduction to Mathematical Thinking as a MOOC, his thoughts on the new pedagogy, and how he has revised his course prior to its second release.
Context for my perspective:
(this is not an "argument from authority", merely perspective) The past two years have been a sabbatical while supporting my partner's career, which required extended periods overseas, precluding extended contract work. In addition to developing the new skills required to support her career, the sabbatical has included formal education through massively open online courses- MOOCs, plus, of course, relevant reading. Recent courses:
- Model Thinking, Prof Scott E. Page, University of Michigan
- Lean Launchpad, Stanford,
- Technology Entrepreneurship, Stanford,
- Sustainability, Prof Jonathan Tomkin, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
- Introduction to Mathematical Thinking, Prof Keith Devlin. Stanford University
- History of the World since 1300, Prof J Adelman, Princeton U.
- Think Again: How to Reason and Argue, Profs Walter Sinnott-Armstrong, Ram Neta, Duke U
- Critical Thinking in Global Challenges, Profs Celine Caquineau, Mayank Dutia, U of Edinburgh
- Energy @ Georgia Tech
